Part 5 – There’s No Place Like Home

Played 19, won 18, drawn 1… Man Utd’s record at Old Trafford last season was near faultless.

With one draw and one loss, Chelsea’s home record the previous season was almost as convincing.

In fact, the ability to win at home is a trait of Champions.  The table below illustrates the home records of the Premier League Champions for the last ten seasons.

Over the last ten seasons, the Champions have only lost nine home games between them, with a third of these lost by Arsenal in 2001-02.  More points have been dropped from draws, but only eight matches over the last six seasons have been drawn by the eventual champions.

Of the 13 home matches not won by the Champions Elect in the last six seasons, only four were against the old ‘Big Four’ (with Chelsea also losing at home to Man City in 2009-10, where they had finished 10^th the previous season) making factoring in these dropped points into the par-result model impractical.

So far this season, the six APLT featured teams have played 23 home matches, with only four of them not won by the home team.

The Alternative Premier League Table illustrates the level of consistency in the top three teams quite clearly.

One small blip for Chelsea (the away loss to Man Utd) is the only negative gradient (dropped points to par) for any of the top three teams.  Meanwhile, Liverpool and Arsenal have had below-par results in four of their eight matches, the former off-setting the damage with wins in two par-1s (away at Arsenal and Everton).  Spurs have managed to stabilise their season after below par results in their first two games, with five pars in a row (and only narrowly failed to pull two points back against Newcastle after a late Ameobi strike at St.James’ Park).

Next Sunday’s match at Old Trafford between the two Manchesters guarantees one of them to drop points-to-par for the first time this season.  The remaining four APLT teams all have 3-point par matches,  so Man City are the only team who can pick up points-to-par.

Part 4: Dream Starts for the Manchester 2?

Haven’t the two teams from Manchester had fantastic starts to the season?

If you listen to some of the views in the media, you might as well let those two teams scrap it out alone as no one else is in the running this year.

If we look at how they have fared so far, the hyperbole surrounding them could be warranted.  Only Chelsea are within three points of them, and Arsenal’s title bid is surely over after only seven matches.

So why have Man Utd and Man City pulled away from the remaining title challengers so quickly?  Looking at the fixtures they have had certainly helps to explain this.

Man Utd have had four home matches and trips to West Brom, Bolton and Stoke.  Meanwhile, Man City have had three home matches and away matches at Bolton, Spurs, Fulham and Blackburn.  Not only this, both teams played Spurs before their significant deadline day signings of Parker and Adebayor, and while Modric’s head was turned towards Stamford Bridge.

Compare these fixtures to Liverpool’s start of three home matches, and trips to Arsenal, Stoke, Spurs and Everton or to Chelsea’s start of three home matches, and away matches to Stoke, Man Utd, Sunderland and Bolton.  It is clear that the impressive points totals of Man Utd and Man City are at least partly down to a favourable set of fixtures.

The Alternative Premier League Table currently shows a much closer situation at the top, with only two points separating the top four teams.  The two Manchesters are still (deservedly) top with two points more than their par totals, but Chelsea and Liverpool will also be very satisfied by their points totals from their opening seven fixtures.

The next three rounds of matches could have a significant impact on both the real and alternative Premier League Tables, with Man Utd playing away at Liverpool and Everton, sandwiching a home tie to Man City, while Arsenal travel to Chelsea in the third of these rounds.