Part 3: 22 is the Magic Number

Since my last post, I have been compiling some additional data from previous seasons using the same model.  It has turned out some quite interesting data that I thought I should share.

In each of the last three seasons, the eventual Premier League Champions have won 22 of their 26 ‘most-winnable’ matches.  However, there is no discernable pattern in the results of the one-point-target matches.  In fact, only 13 of the 36 par-1 matches played by the title winners over the last three year were in-fact drawn.

I can only conclude that tracking the results of the most winnable matches is the most valuable indicator of a title assault, as there is a consistent level of performance by the title winning teams in these fixtures.  To win the league, you need to win 22 of these matches.

Looking at the results of the top four teams over the last three seasons in the par-1 matches shows some quite interesting data.

2008-09

1^st - Man Utd – 22 points

2^nd - Liverpool – 26 points

3^rd - Chelsea – 25 points

4^th - Arsenal – 21 points

2009-10

1^st – Chelsea – 16 points

2^nd – Man Utd – 19 points

3^rd – Arsenal – 17 points

4^th – Spurs – 18 points

2010-11

1^st  – Man Utd – 11 points

2^nd – Chelsea – 10 points

3^rd – Man City – 10 points

4^th – Arsenal – 19 points

There is actually quite a bit of variance in the points accrued from these matches from one year to the next, but between the teams within each season, there is a remarkable level of similarity.  There is also no correlation between the points gained in these matches and the final league standings.

Finally, here is the up-to-date Alternative Premier League Table, which shows Man City going two ahead of target and drawing level with Man Utd, while Arsenal and Spurs are both sitting below par, and below the 71-points target line.