In my opening article, I wrote about the importance of not dropping points in relation to target in consecutive matches. A loss at The Emirates would have seen Liverpool doing just that, however, in a controlled performance, two late goals saw Liverpool win there for the first time. This win pulled back the two points dropped in the opening fixture against Sunderland, which was a bad result regardless of how you look at it. Liverpool are now back on target for a 90 point season. Like in golf, bounce-back-ability is a sign of a winning mentality.
Also on target for 90 points after their opening two matches are Manchester City and Chelsea. Although Chelsea drew their opening match, an away point at Stoke City is a satisfactory result for any team (despite what some people would have you believe), and in this model has a target score of one point. Manchester City on the other hand have had back-to-back wins, but nothing more than they would expect against Swansea (H) and Bolton (A).
The biggest losers from the opening two matches are Arsenal. Although their away draw at Newcastle is a target result, any home loss is a very poor result. As I mention above, avoiding consecutive dropped points (in relation to target) is essential to mounting a title challenge, and they will be delighted to leave Old Trafford next weekend with a point.
The big winners so far are Man Utd with two points gained over target in their opening match away at West Brom. They were also able to consolidate their gain with an important win at home to Spurs, who themselves have dropped a point in their only match so far.
To illustrate the Alternative Premier League Table throughout the season, I will be keeping the following graph up-to-date. I have also presented a close up version. As Man City and Chelsea track the green 90 point target line, their traces are hidden.
Top Four Target
A few people have been discussing various ways this model can be adapted to track a top four target. However, the way I personally like to look at it is that teams that come top four are able to play with title winning form for parts of the season, but not all, whereas the title winners are able to produce more consistency. Therefore, on the graph above, you might see some drops followed by plateaus in top four teams. Their target results should remain the same, however, you just have to apply a handicap like in golf (going back to my original analogy).
To illustrate this, I have presented a descending line to illustrate a 71 point target (19 point handicap), which means that 0.5 points per game can be dropped in relation to target over the course of the season. As I mention above, teams won’t follow this line, but need to be above it by the end of the season.
Below is an updated version of the 08-09 season data with this 71 point line added. You can see that Liverpool had two title winning standard runs, up to game 20 and from 24 to the end. Chelsea fell below the 71 point line after game 25, then had an above title winning finish to the season. Arsenal were below the 71 point line for most of the season, but had title winning form for the last 11 games to sneak above the 71 point line.
The importance of winning the three point matches
I have been looking through some past results. The following tables show the number of three pointers and one pointers won drawn and lost in the 08-09 and 09-10 seasons for the top four teams. I know the sample is small (I haven’t had time to look at other seasons yet), but in both these seasons, the champions (08-09 – Man Utd, 09-10 – Chelsea) won 22 of their 26 three pointers, which I think adds weight to this model.
2008-09
No comments:
Post a Comment