Part 6 – The Good, The Bad and The Level Par

Is beating Arsenal away, Everton away and West Brom away the stuff of Champions? Maybe. But what certainly aren’t results befitting champions elect are home draws to newly promoted clubs.

I’ve only looked back six years, but in all of those seasons, only one home match has not been won by the eventual champions to a newly promoted club. That was Man Utd’s home draw with West Brom last season.

Liverpool have had some good results in the league this season. Despite the losses away at Stoke and Spurs in consecutive games, their away form has been better than the model would suggest a title winning team should have. However, their away form has been overshadowed by some very bad results at Anfield, with draws to Sunderland, Norwich and Swansea. While some credit needs to go to those teams for the way they played, title winning teams win those games.

Consistency is the key to any successful season, and having the occasional great result like beating Man Utd 6-1 at Old Trafford will not define the season for Man City. What will define their season will be whether they can maintain their consistency in winning the most winnable matches.

The table below summarises the number of results so far that have matched, fallen below, or exceeded the par result for each team. What it illustrates is that Liverpool have been incredibly inconsistent so far, with the most above par and the most below par results. While it is good to have offset some of the damage caused by the below-par results, it is not reasonable to expect them to continue to pick up points in the harder to win matches. A win at Stamford Bridge next time out would pull them back to 2-below-par, but that certainly won’t be the shortest priced result in any bookmaker’s shop. They need to learn very quickly how to win consistently at home, or they might soon be looking up at the 71 point line.

The Alternative Premier League Table graph shows that Liverpool is the only team featured not to have had a period of consistent title winning form. Arsenal have recovered tremendously with a six match, above par run, and Spurs have stormed back into contention for the top honours since their opening two losses.